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UFC 307 Quick Picks

Alright let’s get back on the horse now shall we!

First up, we’re hitting another one of these opener parlays to keep us engaged in the Main-Card for UFC 307 going down TONIGHT exclusively on PPV on ESPN.

Opening Parlay: Means (-185) + Pennington (-162) + Spann (-238) = +253

So in this parlay it’s the first leg that scares me the most, Tim Means “Business” is facing another seasoned vet in Court McGee. I think this fight goes to a decision with two tough & durable guys, and I’m siding with Tim Means who historically has a good use of his length/reach when it comes to winning rounds. He just needs to worry about the cage/clinch work of McGee which could slow down this fight at altitude.

Next up, Tecia Pennington aka “The Tiny Tornado”, formerly Tecia Torres, is facing off against former champ Carla Esparza in what is supposed to be Carla’s retirement fight. This isn’t baseball, there are no Derek Jeter curtain calls, this is MMA and it is BRUTAL. I don’t see this fight going well for Esparza who at 36 years old and nearly 30 pro fights since 2010 hasn’t been “elite” in a very long time. In my opinion, her eventual title was more fluke than famine, and I see Tecia Pennington cruising to an easy win here.

Finally, Ryan “Superman” Spann going up against Ovince St.Preux, a former title challenger at 205lbs who is always game. The former Tennessee Vol football player in OSP has made a hell of a career in MMA after his gridiron days. Here’s the thing though, Ryan Spann has title challenger pedigree as well. I just see “Superman” being on the rise while OSP slowly declines, and with Spann coming off 3-straight losses, this is as close to a “must win” as there is. Give me Spann to get it done, even via finish if you want to get crazy.

Roman Dolidze (+124) vs Kevin Holland (-148)

This is a fight where it scares me trusting the judges. Kevin Holland is a grade-A level shit talker who fights with a precision none of his opponents expect. He is a sneaky good grappler who can hold his own against strong wrestlers and BJJ players alike, and is a consistent UFC PPV fighter because of his fighting style. HOWEVER, 3 of his last 6 fights have gone to a decision, and his submission wins weren’t exactly against world beaters. Dolidze is 5 years Holland’s senior and a fraction of the total fights that “Big Mouth” has, but his most recent win against Anthony Smith is a higher level of competition than Holland has faced, and I see him carrying the momentum, as well as a size advantage, into an ugly decision win. I predict we hear Kevin Holland apologize to the SLC crowd for a “boring” fight that he will lose 2 rounds to 1 on two of the cards. DOLIDZE via DEC.

Julianna Pena (+136) vs. Raquel Pennington (-162)

It scares me how good I feel about this pick. Similarly to the Pennington/Esparza pick earlier, this is more of a fade on “Rocky” than it is a pick for “The Venezuelan Vixen”. Pena is an absolute DAWG in the cage, she doesn’t quit, and I don’t see the altitude of this fight, nor the training altitude of Pennington, being a huge factor. What I DO think is a huge factor is that both fighters have a tendency to have sloppy, ugly fights. Neither is a striking technician, nor possess an inane ability to dominate a fight in one realm versus another. This fight is very much two generalists at the top of the women’s division, where some might argue that longevity is the greatest skill. Personally, I love the trash talk, we have gotten more out of Pennington because of the cocky nature of Pena’s mic work, but I think one of these fighters FIGHTS like she talks, and the other talks tougher than she fights. I think Julianna Pena banks at least 3 rounds on here way to a decision victory to regain the UFC 135lbs title. PENA via DEC.

LISTENER HOT TAKES

Ok Justin Herron UFC…

I had to include this because it’s one of the craziest things I’ve ever seen. You’re going to tell me Buckley has better takedowns that frickin’ GSP?!?

NO SHOT.

Let’s go to the stat machine shall we?

Actually let’s have some fun, we will do blind stats and you guys can guess who is who and we can come to a decision together….

Okay I’ll wait…take a look above…make a guess on who is who in the poll here.

Now let me provide some context before giving the answer.

GSP ranks in 22 different categories all-time on UFC stats. TWENTY-TWO!

I think there are only 25 categories recorded on the site, and he is top 10 in 22 of them, ranging from most octagon time to most takedowns. Most control time in UFC history? CHECK — Most top position time in UFC history? CHECK. GSP is a historical marvel In the pantheon of UFC.

Buckley on the other hand…ranks in just 2 categories all-time at Middleweight, both being knockdown categories (striking not grappling).

Okay are you ready for the answer now? Fighter A is Buckley and Fighter B is GSP.

I don’t even think I have to debate this any further.

DISAGREE 👎👎👎 

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THANKS FOR ALL THE SUPPORT!