🥊 UFC 306 Bets, Hot Takes, and MMA Twitter Roundup

Apologies for the delay to the loyal Pound 4 Pound & Shadow Lion family as this #UFC306 fight week has been a DOOZY to say the least. BUT HAVE NO FEAR, the best MMA Newsletter you can sign-up for…is here!

Check out this awesome episode of Pound-4-Pound before the card today!

Make sure you hit that subscribe button!!

UFC 306 Quick Picks

UFC President Dana White is calling this one “a love letter to the Mexican people” but all I see is a love letter for my wallet at the window! These are my Pound 4 Pound picks for this weekend’s card. LET’S GO AMIGOS!

Opening Parlay: Rosas Jr (-900) + Van (-258) + OVER 2.5 in Jauregei vs Souza (-270) = +111

Okay guys, Uncle Dana said we need to be in our seats PRONTO for this one so why not make things interesting with a parlay leading up to the main-card.

Yes, this is chalky, we’ve got a near -1000 favorite to start the card but having money on Raul Rosas Jr and the CHIWIWIS is just too much fun, so he’s in there. Joshua Van takes on a very game Edgar Chairez but I think he gets it done too. Finally, Jauregei vs. Souza has a clear favorite but I don’t trust the judges on a REGULAR night, let alone one with this massive spectacle.

That’ll wet your beak…

Valentina Shevchenko (+110) vs. Alexa Grasso (-130)

Everyone in the world is writing off “Bullet” Valentina Shevchenko and I simply don’t understand why. So rewind to the first fight, Valentina entered something like a -600 favorite after a blistering run as the 125lbs champ. She was up 3 rounds, about to bank a 4th and cruise to an easy win, made one stupid decision and that was all she wrote. Credit to Grasso, she capitalized, but let’s call a spade a spade and say it was a bit of a fluke. Okay, they rematch, headlining the Sept.16 Mexican Independence Day event, a largely mediocre fight that resulted in a Draw…meaning Grasso keeps the belt, “winning” the fight so-to-speak. I thought Valentina won, and so did 41% of submitted cards on MMADecisions.com. So now here we are at the trilogy, co-main event of the largest combat sports entertainment spectacle in history…and I don’t see how Valentina “loses” a third fight to Grasso, who whilst incredibly talented, is still not a more complete fighter in my opinion than Shevchenko. She was PISSED at the judges last year to the extent she didn’t even want to fight on Mexican Independence Day again, so I think she fights with FIREPOWER from minute 1. Prediction: Shevchenko by TKO

Merab Dvalishvili (-105) vs. Sean O’Malley (-115)

This is the prediction I have felt the strongest about since this fight was announced. Full disclosure, Ray Longo and Aljamain Sterling are both close friends of mine and I have a personal tie to this fight. On the other side, my friend Evan Longoria, future MLB Hall of Famer, trains with Sean O’Malley’s coach Tim Welch and the Red Hawk Academy in Tucson.

With that being said, I’ve tried to keep analytically true and give you guys what I truly believe is the most likely scenario.

Make no doubt about it, Sean O’Malley is a superstar, and he’s put a ton of promotional weight on his back in the buildup to this fight at this historic groundbreaker of an event. He is a big game player for certain, and when the moment is bright, he shines brightest.

However, he’s facing a guy who is one chromosome away from being in a loony bin, and I mean that in the best way. He is chaotically driven, he is tenaciously rabid, he is the epitome of a gym rat scurrying across the sparring rounds even when the coach says stop. I think uniquely, Merab is the PERFECT fighter to not be impacted by the spectacle of the Sphere.

Now technically, Sean O’Malley is a sniper, make no doubts about it, the guys’ hands are heat-seeking missiles to the enemy chin. He is one of, if not the most elusive striker in the sport. It took just one mistake for him to capitalize and win the UFC title. The danger of his power is not to be ignored in the first 10-12 minutes of this fight.

BUT, if Merab can stay defensively sound, keep the pressure on Sean, smush his back against the cage and deplete that energy bar, I think we see “and new” with an exhausted O’Malley being TKO’d from ground and pound after 15+ takedowns landed.

This fight goes 1 of 3 ways. Either Sean knocks Merab out, Merab smothers him for 25 minutes, or Merab exhausts Sean into a finish in the later rounds. If the fight goes any other way my jaw will be safely resting on the floor, along with everyone elses.

Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili by TKO

LISTENER HOT TAKES

Welcome back Kenny, I feel like you’ll be making many appearances here.

Your last hot take about Aljo, I agreed with, this one about GSP however?

GSP Is great for his era, but would struggle against the best of today’s era.

I’m going to lean on my good friends at Tapology here because I feel like the fans can tell us what’s what in terms of how GSP would fare in 2024.

Let’s start here with #1 Greatest MMA Fighter of All-Time, which is a list that compiles every single ranking on the site, including their members and panels. It constantly updates and GSP sits #1 ahead of Jon Jones, Demetrious Johnson, Anderson Silva, and Jose Aldo.

On top of that, he’s the #2 Greatest MMA Grappler of all-time, behind Khabib Nurmagomedov.

Now, has the sport evolved? Certainly. Guys like Alexander Volkanovski have seemingly taken the GSP blueprint and upgraded it with modern-day footwork, however, GSP was AHEAD of his game at the time. My good friend Kenny Florian has always said that 1.) Nobody worked harder than GSP and also 2.) Nobody was a genius like him in terms of preparation. His OCD was a superpower, and I don’t see how in 2024 if he was still in a physical prime that he wouldn’t simply still be one of the best fighters on the roster. At 170lbs for example, I think only Belal Muhammad and Kamaru Usman would put up competitive bouts against him. At 185lbs, I think that list is longer but keep in mind GSP only fought at 185lbs one time and that was because he knew Bisping was a great matchup for him.

So Kenny, I love ya’, but GSP would still be an all-time great today!

DISAGREE 👎👎👎 (but he’s a hell of a social media follow)

BEST OF MMA TWITTER 💥 💥 💥 💥 

Another new segment, here is a collection of things on MMA Twitter that I think you’ll like!

Looks like McGregor vs Chandler ain’t happenin…

Lazy Boy GOES OFF!!

Renato Moicano roasts himself and Raul Rosas Jr in the process.

Also send in your hot takes and we will feature our favorites in the newsletter answered by yours truly!

🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

THANKS FOR ALL THE SUPPORT!